Work package 4: Simulations

Leader: NTNU and NORCE
Partners: GEOMAR, AWI, FMI

A hierarchy of regional and global models, as well as prior model data, will be used to comprehensively assess the carbon sequestration potential, side effects and the associated uncertainties of different ocean negative emission technologies with a focus on ocean alkalinization, direct CO2 removal from seawater, and marine biomass for biochar/BECCS.

Objectives

  1. To understand and quantify the potential, effectiveness, and impacts of ocean NETs through model simulations from regional to global scales on decadal to multi-centennial timescales.
  2. To identify maximum (physically and chemically possible) deployment rates, as well as constrained deployment rates, which allow staying within “safe operating spaces” (e.g. local ecological thresholds, planetary boundaries), and which ensure compatibility of ocean NETs with the UN sustainability goals and public acceptance.
  3. To provide an assessment of impacts (co-benefits and risks) of different ocean NETs associated with changes in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with “termination effects”, and potential impacts on ecology; taking into account model uncertainties.
  4. To understand and quantify impacts of ocean NETs on the land and atmosphere.
  5. To assess interactions of ocean NETs with land-based NET methods, particularly through changes in carbon and nutrient cycling.